The AFC West Landscape

Thanks to subscriber Dirk Scholl who jumped deep into the numbers and put together this look at the AFC West over the next four weeks. Luckily he’s taken a lot of factors and put them together in a very clear and concise package. Enjoy.

Chiefs win 4

  • Chiefs finish 12-4 and take the division.
  • Best OAK and SD can finish is 9-7.

Chiefs win 3

  • Chiefs finish 11-5 and take the division.
  • Best OAK or SD can finish is 10-6.


Chiefs win 2

Chiefs finish 10-6, and now it depends:

Chiefs win against SD and OAK

  • Chiefs finish 10-6 and take the division.
  • Best OAK and SD can finish is 9-7.

Chiefs beat SD and either TEN or STL

  • Chiefs are 10-6 and SD may only get to 9-7.
  • Raiders must win all four to go 10-6. In that case they will own the face-to-face tiebreaker over KC. OAK takes the division.

Chiefs win against OAK and either TEN or STL

  • Chiefs are 10-6 and OAK goes 9-7.
  • SD must win all four to go 10-6. In that case the face-to-face tiebreaker will be a push.
  • Next tiebreaker: Standings within the division: KC 3-3, SD 3-3.
  • Next tiebreaker: Standings in common games: KC 7-5, SD 8-4. SD takes the division.

Chiefs win against TEN and STL to finish 10-6:

Raiders must win all four to go 10-6. In that case they will own the face-to-face tiebreaker over KC and SD. OAK takes the division.

If OAK loses one game: SD must win all four to go 10-6.

Chiefs win one game or none:

Won’t happen. No need to discuss (I sincerely hope.)

8 Responses to “The AFC West Landscape”

  • December 8, 2010  - Brad says:

    I have found it really interesting that no one is talking about how important the implications of a win this weekend are. When the Chiefs beat the Chargers they will be 9-4 and SD will be 6-7. SD would have to win out just to go 9-7 and tie our current (at that time) record … but Chiefs take the tiebreaker so whatever. The only remaining team to contend for the division would be Oakland. If the Chiefs are a playoff team they will deal with the Raiders in week 17.

    So … A win this week virtually locks-up a playoff spot (or at least effectively eliminates SD from the race) !!

  • December 8, 2010  - Gerardo says:

    Really nice, I think the Chiefs most likely will win 2 or more, and then it puts a lot of pressure in SD and OAK to go 4-0 in the final quarter of the season. If our team can beat SD this Sunday I will be a very happy man.

  • December 9, 2010  - Chuck says:

    The problem now at this point is if Cassel cannot return for the final 4 games is that we very well could lose them all. Finishing at 8-8 would not be the end of the world. I have very little faith in Brittle Brodie Croyle or Tyler Palko to perform under pressure when they have not even been in a game yet this year. Its truly a shame but we’ll get thru it.

  • December 9, 2010  - KC_Guy says:

    I’ll do a 3-game evaluation next week including one- and zero-win scenarios. May be by then the wildcard scenario has become clearer – right now there are way to many options to discuss in here.

  • December 9, 2010  - el cid says:

    This is good stuff. Hate to see what it took to figure it all out. Thank you for your efforts.

    No matter who the is the QB sunday, we need a win over SD. They would be done then only have to beat oakland and we are in the playoffs.

  • December 9, 2010  - RW says:

    The Chiefs have already won more games than I thought they would when the season began, so anything from this point forward is a continuing bonus and exceeding expectations which is marvelous, to say the least. Even WITH the hot Cassel and SD’s back to the wall, I didn’t give them much chance this Sunday on the road and all, so it boils down to holding serve at home.

    They take out Tenn and Oak at Arrowhead and I like their chances to win the division with a 10-6 record. Of course, the QB situation can alter the best laid out scenarios because Croyle has yet to win his first NFL game. We’re sort of staring down the long empty barrel of a 4th quarter of the season that could go any number of ways, including a total collapse or a glorius Phoenix-like rising from the ashes and into the playoffs again.

    Which of these will happen? I’d say, flip a coin.

  • December 9, 2010  - Rick says:

    On arrowhead pride there was an article about if the Chiefs jinxed themselves about starting to sell playoff tickets. As being a long time season ticket holder I can tell you that it has always been done this way. They are doing nothing different this year than in years past so no they didn’t jinx themselves!!!

  • December 9, 2010  - Aloha Ray says:

    My best guess is that we win the home games and lose the ones on the road. That would mean we need the Dolts to lose one. I think they’re just the team to do that! That said, I expect Coach Weiss to take a lemon (Croyle) and make some pretty damned mean lemonade on Sunday. Croyle seems like a good kid; what a reward for all the hard work if he could be the winning QB for the Chiefs in such a big game.

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