The Chiefs can still win the division on their own, but only if the win all remaining games. If they lose just one, they need SD to lose at least one as well. Here are the scenarios with thanks to Dirk Scholl.

Chiefs win 3:

  • Chiefs are 11-5 and take the division.
  • Best OAK can get is 8-8, best SD can get is 10-6.

Chiefs win 2:

  • It’s irrelevant which games the Chiefs win. The only difference would be the final standings of OAK and the way SD wins the tie-breaker.
  • If the Chiefs lose just one game SD will take the division by winning out.
  • With two more wins the Chiefs are 10-6.
  • SD must win all 3 to go 10-6.

In that case:

  • Face-to-face tie-breaker: push.
  • Next tie-breaker: Standings within the division: KC 3-3 (if KC wins over OAK), 2-4 (else); SD 3-3: SD may win already this tie-breaker.
  • Next tie-breaker: Standings in common games: KC 7-5, SD 8-4. SD wins.

Chiefs win 1:

  • Chiefs end the season at 9-7.
  • SD may get to 10-6 but will hold the tie-breaker over KC even if they lose one game.
  • By winning all three remaining games OAK may get to 9-7 as well. In that case OAK win the face-to-face tie-breaker over both SD and KC.

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