Monday Morning Cup O’Chiefs
If you spent the weekend watching the divisional action in the playoffs, you saw something unusual: home-field advantage meant nothing.
Baltimore, Arizona and Philadelphia all played away from home and all came away with victories. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers protected their home turf, winning the weekend’s fourth game over San Diego 35-24.
The results set up the conference championship games for next Sunday: Philadelphia at Arizona in the first game and then Baltimore at Pittsburgh in the nightcap. We’ll have more on those later in the week.
The divisional round has always been the most interesting because of the match ups. Half the field is coming back after a bye week. That same half had the best records in the regular season, so theoretically they are the best teams. The other half of the teams are coming off their first game in the playoffs, games that they won.
Still, the home teams have been dominant over the years. The AFL and NFL merged their seasons and playoffs for the 1970 season. In the divisional round only once before did the home teams go 1-3. That was way back in 1971, when Miami won at Municipal Stadium against the Chiefs in double overtime, Baltimore beat the Browns in Cleveland, Dallas beat the Vikings in Minneapolis and only San Francisco won at home, beating Washington.
So for the first time in 37 years, the feat was duplicated as the Ravens topped the Titans in Nashville, the Cardinals slammed the Panthers in Charlotte and the Eagles beat the Giants in the Meadowlands.
We’ve grown up believing that playing at home is vital for a team in the playoffs, and a 1-3 record in the divisional round every 37 years would seem to confirm that as fact.
But in the NFL of the 21st Century that idea is going out the window. The home team’s record this year of 1-3 is just a continuation of what’s happened in this decade. Here are the numbers
| Decade | AFC | NFC | Overall |
| 2000-2008 | 11-7 .611 | 12-6 .667 | 23-13 .639 |
| 1990s | 14-6 .700 | 19-1 .950 | 33-7 .825 |
| 1980s | 14-6 .700 | 14-6 .700 | 28-12 .700 |
| 1970s | 14-6 .700 | 13-7 .650 | 27-13 .675 |
In this decade only twice in eight years have the home teams been 4-0 in the divisional games: 2002 and 2004. It happened four times in the 1990s. In just the last five years, AFC home teams are 5-5 and NFC home teams are 6-4.
So what the heck is going on? Why have two of the last three Super Bowl winners been wildcard teams that did not have a home game? In this decade, a No. 1 seed has won the championship just once: New England in 2003. Wildcard teams have three titles: Baltimore (2000), Pittsburgh (2005) and the New York Giants (2007).
Parity in the league is a big factor in the way this is breaking down. What happens during the season is that good teams can have a stumble along the way. Because there are more and more good players, average teams can rise up and knock off a good team more often. Yes, I know the Patriots went 16-0 last season in the regular season, but that’s way off the curve.
This year, the Ravens were 2-3 as they broke in rookie quarterback Joe Flacco. The Eagles were 5-5-1 after losing to Baltimore on November 23rd. Both the Ravens and Eagles found themselves in divisions where they fell behind other teams who had good seasons.
And one wildcard winning just builds the hope and confidence of the next wildcard teams. Philadelphia watches last year as the Giants go on the road and win three games to make the Super Bowl and the Eagles realize that if they can make the tournament, anything can happen. The Ravens just two years ago saw the Steelers go all the way as the sixth seed.
So what’s the home-field worth in the conference championship games. Over the last 20 years, only six times did both home teams win the championship games. Twice both teams lost. The other 12 years it was 1-1 for the home teams. Both conferences home team for the ticket to the Super Bowl were 12-8.
DETAILS AND INFORMATION ON SUNDAY’S DIVISIONAL GAMES
The Philadelphia Eagles found a way to befuddle Eli Manning and the New York Giants offense in capturing a 23-11 victory. Here’s the Game Book and statistics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers found plenty of offense and dominated the time of possession in beating the San Diego Chargers 35-24. Here’s the Game book and statistics.
THE GM/COACHING FRONT
Sounds like the Denver Broncos have decided to replace their offensive minded former head coach with a new offensive minded head coach. As early as Monday, New England Patriots offensive coordiator Josh McDaniels is expected to be announced as the replacement for Mike Shanahan.
They expect some sort of decision today in Indianapolis from head coach Tony Dungy on whether he will continue on as the Colts top man. Dungy traditionally goes away for a week after the season and ponders whether it’s time to go onto his life’s work.
Supposedly Dungy met over Sunday with Colts owner Jim Irsay and then went back to Tampa for one more conversation with his wife Lauren. The Dungy family moved back to Tampa in the past year. The family’s time in the last week was filled with surgery in New York for son Jordan and his broken leg. He should have a decision on Monday.
At 53, Dungy has talked for the last several years about leaving coaching. The team has already set up assistant coach Jim Caldwell as Dungy’s replacement. Dungy has been a head coach for 13 years, six at Tampa Bay and the last seven with the Colts. He has 148 career victories and a Super Bowl title.
Now the rest of the jobs that we know are open, with nothing new on the griddle that we know of about the Chiefs GM search and Scott Pioli:
LIONS – Looks like the folks in Detroit have zeroed in on Jim Schwartz, the Titans defensive coordinator as their new head coach. Schwartz was in Detroit on Sunday. The Lions also want to have a second conversation with Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and that could come as early as Monday now that the Giants are done with the playoffs. NFL folks believe it will come down to these two for the job of replacing Rod Marinelli.
JETS – Some media types in New York peg Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer as the favorite to replace Eric Mangini. The Jets met Sunday with Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan. Late last week they met with Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh on the west coast, after meeting on Thursday in Phoenix with Cardinals offensive line coach Russ Grimm.
RAIDERS – Packers LB coach Winston Moss was expected to interview with Al Davis this weekend in the Bay Area. Whether he’s seen as a possible head coach or defensive coordinator is unknown.
RAMS – They interviewed Rex Ryan on Sunday morning in Baltimore and right now have scheduled Frazier for an interview on Tuesday in Los Angeles with team ownership.
TEBOW STAYING AT FLORIDA FOR SENIOR SEASON
They held a big celebration at the Swamp down in Gainesville, Florida on Sunday for the Florida Gators national championship. It turned into an even bigger party when quarterback Tim Tebow announced he was returning for his senior season rather than apply for the 2009 NFL Draft.
Tebow had a little fun with the Gator fans as he spoke in very solemn tones about the season and his thoughts of his time at Florida.
“You come out and support us win or lose, good or bad; I just love you so much,” Tebow told the crowd, estimated at more than 40,0000. “I also know how you feel because I’m a Gator fan myself. I love Gator nation, I love you all. Thank you so much. Thank you. God bless. I appreciate you so much.”
Tebow then started walking off the stage. He stopped just before leaving and still holding the microphone, he turned around and yelled:
“One more thing: let’s do it again. I’m coming back!”
For more about the day and Tebow’s decision, click here.
FROM THE PAGES OF SUPER BOWL HISTORY
It was on January 12, 1969 that the New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 to win Super Bowl III at the Orange Bowl in Miami. Everybody knows the story of how on Thursday before the game, Joe Namath guaranteed a victory over the heavily favored Colts. Namath then went out and led the Jets to a decisive decision that rocked the football world and firmly established that the AFL was just as good as the NFL. Namath hit 17 of 28 passes in the game for 206 yards and kept the Colts defense off-balance with a balanced attack that included 121 rushing yards and the Jets only TD from RB Matt Snell. K Jim Turner added three field goals. The Jets defense had t here interceptions of Earl Morrall in the first half. An injured Johnny Unitas came on in the second half and led Baltimore to its only score late in the fourth quarter.
Well if Pioli is to be our new GM, he wont be replaceing Herm with Josh McDaniels. Looks like we will be faceing him 2 times a year now in Denver. I wonder if that will be a Good thing or Bad? Could mean we sweep the Broncos next year at least.
Or could this be a sign that we wont be getting Pioli? Either way I am getting concerned over the talant level of good assistant coaches and defensive coordinators are starting to dwindle down and we need to at least hire new ones even if Herman is retained. “GUN’s GOT-TO-GO!”
Could I get a little red and gold in my cup o’Chiefs please?
Watching the divisional games this weekend, DEFENSE once again jumped out at me. The top 3 ranked defenses for the 2008 season(Pitt, Balt, Philly) are in their conference championship game. Cardinals are ranked 19th for the season, but played a top 5 caliber defensive game against the Panthers forcing 5 turnovers, with 4 interceptions. Again reinforces the importance of having a strong defense and that defense wins playoff games – whether on road or in bad weather.
Another thing that stood out at me was COACHING ADJUSTMENTS and GAME PLANNING. Yes, coaching! Did you see some of the deliberately designed pass routes the Cardinals deployed to free up Fitzgerald with Boldin out? They ran many “pick type” and mid-field receiver crossing routes. Those routes really freed up the receivers. Each of the 4 divisional winners made game planning adjustments coming into the game and during the game. Stood out to me how the Chiefs don’t do that like other teams. I do believe it is time for our coaching staff to go. They just don’t game plan and adjust to team and during games like winning franchises. Pioli will expect that and demand that since that is one of the pillars that makes Bellichek…well Belichek. It’s a must in this league with the parity that’s the NFL.
Last year, if we had heard that John Harbaugh, Mike Smith, and Tony Sporano were the only coaches available, we would have been seriously concerned about the the lack of any coaching talent. We really have no idea who all is out there. We just know who’s NAME is out there.
Obviously playoff team are operating on a different level that the 08 chiefs. But it seemed to me the chiefs are not ready to compete against this level much less win a game. My ole buddy herm says the team is 85% ready, well I do not see it. Maybe 25% but the chiefs just do not have the players preforming and there are to many missing parts (I really believe coaching is lumped in there also).
Any ideas about McDaniel going to Denver? Radio suggested might be a sign Pioli will not go to chiefs. It was suggested clark wants the GM to keep herm no matter what. I doubt any truth in this because I doubt clark talks to anyone in KC media anyway.
I get the sinking feeling new GM will be Bill K. and Styles for Pres. Of course, we get herm for another year. Cannot complain in that is clark’s plan if that is it (will not work but not my problem).
tm1946 –
Herm is the city’s biggest snake oil salesman! His 85% remark was so unbelievable, no one is buying this time.
Baltimore has “aged” Ray Lewis flying around, Philly- Brian Dawkins. Derrick Mason, Kurt Warner, Hines Ward, Donovan McNabb– OBVIOUSLY, ALL TOO OLD FOR HERM! Here in KC, to be a good football team (according to Herm) you need youth!
Sadly, KC is no where close to the Steelers, Ravens, Eagles, even the Cards defenses. Of KC’s defensive unit – keepers are Carr, Flowers, Dorsey and DJohnson (maybe)– I’m not sure any of the others are bone fide NFL starters. That ain’t 85%, is it???
I must admit that I am quite disappointed that McDaniels is signing on with Denver. Can’t blame him though, that’s probably the best coaching job in football this offseason. They already have a franchise QB, two awesome WRs, two awesome TEs, and a great O line with a franchise left tackle. I’m surprised that Denver didn’t hire a defensive minded HC because the offensive coaches and scheme are already there in Denver, but that’s the way it goes.
I hope that Clark isn’t clouding the GM hunt with a “Herm stipulation”. I’m not of the mind that Clark needs to hurry it up. I want him to make the right decision, but this waiting (for Godot) is driving me up the wall!
What a wonderfull picture the East Coast teams that are in play offs are doing , displaying what it takes to get the job done .
Along with that here comes Robin Hood and his merry bunch with that great fan base . —-Does any one down there know how to spell football ? Oh —Sorry the owner does .
I do remmber Herm in a play off game here , but it seemed strange that he was not the least bit ready , Mainly in game plans ?
Mike Shanahan———–G.M. & Coach
Shanahan would proably want nothing more than to beat Denver TWICE next year ,and go to where hes been before !
Clark Kent needs to change , and go faster than speeding bullit and leap tall buldings in a single bound !!
For anyone who wants Vilma in a Chiefs uni next season, this mailbag response from ESPN will prove interesting. Sounds like there’s no WAY IN HELL the Saints resign Vilma even though they’d love to. IF Herm is still our coach next year, the Vilma hire makes a lot of sense. Actually, it makes a lot of sense without Herm too.
Davin in Brooklyn, N.Y., writes: Hey Tim, love your work. I’ve been following the Jets disappointing season and now am looking forward to the draft for some impact players for the squad. However, the Vilma and Robertson trades last year had multiple stipulations and are a bit confusing to follow, (especially the Saints promising their second round pick to the JETS and Giants). I was hoping you can clarify where the Jets are picking in the draft next year.
Tim Graham: The New Orleans Saints acquired linebacker Jonathan Vilma from the Jets for a conditional draft pick. It started out as a fourth-rounder, but already has been upgraded to a third-rounder because Vilma played in more than 85 percent of the Saints’ defensive snaps. Vilma is a free agent, but if the Saints re-sign him before the market opens Feb. 27, then the Jets will receive the Saints’ second-round pick, and the New York Giants would get the Saints’ first-round pick as part of the Jeremy Shockey trade. Don’t count on that happening. The Saints want their first-round pick.
Time Check: 11:19 a.m. CST, Monday, January 12, 2009…and yup, Herm’s STILL The Man! heh heh heh!
See you back as KC Chiefs Head Coach in 2009 Herm!
oh dont blame the youth concept on herm, and btw, how did signing vets work out in the 98-05 range? Not very well in terms of production…if Vermeil had drafted remotely well, Herm wouldnt have had to go with such a youth movement, either way, the foundation is there, no its about putting the rest of the pieces together.
Ive always liked Vilma, bring him in, add Curry in the 1st, and the LB’s are taken care of…Find a rush end, nab a center in the mid rounds, and this team an compete…a lot of ways that they can do this.
Bob,
I appreciate your site and the features. You’ve done a marvelous job of getting most of us fans connected, especially with the likes of Goose, Czar, and Lenny in those past podcasts.
I would encourage you to further take off the gloves and do a couple of things that may not be possible, given your current status. By that I mean, your previously stated remark about some within the Chief’s family preferring that this site not exist, or words to that effect.
First of all, I’m disappointed at the remark. Any organization that fails to see the benefits of being transparent in matters of general public information is one that is either paranoid, short-sighted or both. Perhaps the new GM will have a different view? I would hope so, but this is an ongoing discussion for another time.
Secondly, and I’m not asking you to compromise your rice bowl with the Chiefs, if possible, given your access, I’d really like to know more about the key players behind the scenes. What’s their mojo, their hot buttons if you will, and how might they react to a given set of circumstances?
Alas, I know I’m asking for alot and probably more than you’re capable of delivering, but I thought someone had to attempt to raise the inner curtain.
Alex K – I don’t blame the 2-14 season on Dick Vermeil. Herm is RESPONSIBLE.
A number of older free agents have been available, Herm has taken a pass. Can’t blame Vermeil for that! Herm should be held accountable, not a guy that hasn’t been in town for 3 years.
Chiefs re-signedThe QB Ingle Martin to a 2-year deal…what a relief. Now we don’t have to draft another young QB.
Keep up the great work Coach Edwards. ALL of KC is behind you and we know that you will lead us back to glory veruy soon now.
AND NOW, Clark Hunt has RE-RE-affirmed Herm’s The Man!
Both Herm and Vermeil along with Peterson are to blame for the current state of the Chiefs. Peterson and Vermeil did a poor job of drafting players to bring in. And Peterson and Herm didn’t do a good enough job bringing in good free agents to help bring along all the young guys we had to draft of the past couple years because of the lack of young talent left on the team when Herm first took over. The common denominator of course is a lack of strong leadership at the top which hopefully Pioli will come in and solve that problem.
As for as the coaching is concerned. I would prefer us to bring in a new guy that is a more of a X’s and O’s guy along with great motivational skills and leadership qualities, but if Herm is brought back I would like to see us at least get a new defensive coord. and offensively be a little bit more committed to runnning the football to bring balance to our offense.
And to add McDaniels signing with the Broncos doesn’t indicate we’re not going to land Pioli as GM. Who says he has to hire McDaniels as the head coach they’re other canidates Pioli could be interested in if he chooses to make a head coaching change. As for the current roster we have now I agree we’re not that far away. Example Falcons went 4 and 12 in 2007 they only added quarterback,running back, and a o-lineman and made it in the playoffs.
Here in KC we’re in a dire need for a defensive end, outside linebacker,right tackle and guard. That’s about close to 85% too me. Secondary we’re fine. Offensively the left side of the o-line we’re good. Running Back when we give Larry the carries he’s been productive and so has Charles. Receiver Gonzalez, Bowe will continue to get better, Bradley emerged as #2 guy without even being in training camp so he’ll get better, and Franklin is a rookie who’s only going to get better with his size and speed. That leaves quarterback in which not bad for a first year starter 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. So we can win with Tyler with him getting training camp to prepare as the starter and not the practice squad quarterback. The record doesn’t show it but if we can get guys to be productive at the positions I mention we can win a bunch of games next year. We’re not as far away as some of you may think when you breakdown the roster
OH forgot to mention Dorsey he’ll improve and so will Tank. Tamba once give a book defensive end to play on the other side with will go back to how he played when Jared was here. AS for DJ he played ok for a guy being thrown into the middle linebacker spot. Would love to see him get a whole training camp to prepare at that position. Then that brings me back to my point in adding another outside linebacker to replace him. ONce Demmario was fully healthy he played much better down the strech of the season
ED use see fried chicken and I see chicken sh*t. I do not see 85% at all. Yes we need a DE but to say the rest of Dline is adequate is wishful thinking with no basis. LJ need more carries?, why what did he do last year to get your support. Tony G is all world, you thing he will get better?? Franklin did absolutely nothing last year but you have him getting better, will happen based on what he contributed last year.
Tyler was a high point last year but no one but you think he is the answer at QB based on what he did and appears capable of. Agree about CB and L side offen. but are we going to play without a C, RT, and RG next year.
The one thing we agree about last year’s season is “the record does not show it”. 2-14 was what we were, not on the cusp of the playoffs.
I was just watching the Denver Broncos news conference where they announced Josh McDaniels as head coach, and while I was watching him speak it became clear to me that the man has a goal and he is very smart. Or at least he speaks smart. One of the first things he said was that he knows that the community of Denver and the fans of Denver expect to win and that he was going to evaluate all aspects of the team and see to it that all weak links are buried and that winners would be brought in to help the Broncos compete for championships. That may or may not happen, but the way this guy was talking was very impressive and very scary. Very rairly do you hear Herm or any Chiefs upper management say anything about how important it is to the fans. While I’m sure they care what the fans think, it would be nice to hear someone acknowlege us. As a Chiefs fan it’s discouraging to hear McDaniels talk. I hope we can find someone this enthusiastic to lead our team and make us a threat again. As it stands we are going backwards.
Ed I agree with you, rookie WR’s take time as most people know, Dorsey has better #’s than Albert Haynesworth had as a rookie. The d-line is decent, the linebacker fits or lack of proper fits and getting off blocks is what made the d-line look really bad in the running game. Obviously we need a pass rush end. But I agree with everything you said. What did larry do? I don’t have the stats, but I do know he had a couple games where he had either a 100 yards or close to it after about 12 carries only to be ignored in the second half. I don’t think he ever came close to 25-30 carries this year, I wonder why we had 14 losses? No D, but larry ran hard especially after his suspension, not to mention the longest runs of his career this year.
Just watching NFL channel and seeing a few coaches moving saddens me greatly. Keep herm, do not care, but what about defensive coaches. Why are these guys still employed by the chiefs? Does anyone believe these coaches get it and what does that mean about the players? They no good? They quit on coaches? They mostly gave up 400 total yards and that is going to change in 09? I just do not get it. clark is finding the perfect GM, Styles will be Pres, and herm stays, just do it but get them some decent asst. coaches before the better ones are gone.
tm 1946 said:
“Keep herm”
- consider it done!
FYI, ESPNNEWS is running a ticker that says Pioli has agreed to be KC’s GM.