A Look At The Numbers

Analyzing the numbers seems to be far more informative when you try to figure out why things are going badly. And, to be honest, not many people care about numbers analysis when things are going well.

Example: no one seems to be complaining about Chiefs coach Todd Haley’s use of the running backs these days – despite the fact that Thomas Jones continues to get more carries than Jamaal Charles. Fewer people are complaining about Matt Cassel’s failures as a passer as the Chiefs continue to be effective on offense and score points. Ditto for the defense, when grabs an interception or two and closes out a game.

So this week we’ll give you the regular numbers and perhaps a few others that illustrate that the Chiefs in game No. 6 are not all that different than the Chiefs in game No. 1.

The Running Game

Just as they did in the first game of the season, the Chiefs used Jones more frequently than Charles. Both remain effective rushing the ball and Jones even showed some surprising wheels with a 70-yard romp in the opening quarter. Despite that run accounting for 56 percent of his total yardage (125) against Jacksonville, Jones still was successful on 10 of his 20 carries.

Charles didn’t have the break-away run that Jones did, but he also gained some of the hard yards in a short-yardage situation.

The bonus for the Chiefs was Dexter McCluster’s first real exposure as an effective back. His speed gives the Chiefs a new high gear in the running game with fast enough, faster and fastest all showing they can contribute.

Player 

Tot. 

3 or less 

4+ 

Big plays 

Successful 

Charles vs. Jax

15-71 

8* 

Season 

81-489 

36* 

42 

16 

46 

Jones vs. Jax

20-125 

12* 

10 

Season 

79/336 

52* 

48 

53 

* Includes 1-yard run for first down. * Includes three short-yardage runs for first down or touchdown.

The Passing Game

Cassel was efficient again. He isn’t passing for big numbers, but he averaged 10.7 yards per pass attempt. If you throw out his monsoon game, his average per attempt for the season would be up at 7.45 yards per attempt.

The other thing that seems to be coming into clearer focus is that Cassel is beginning to have more confidence in his receivers. One complaint early was that he was not delivering his passes to receivers where they could gain yardage following the catch. Cassel is not one to throw any of his receivers under the bus.

Strangely, an incomplete pass may be the best indication that Cassel is gaining confidence that his receivers are beginning to understand this offense and know where to be. He threw a deep ball to the sideline when the receiver broke the route off short. The important thing about this throw is that he was confident enough that the receiver would read it correctly that he let the ball fly.

That may be an indication that Cassel is gaining enough confidence that he will begin delivering passes on time rather than waiting to see what the receivers do.

As for the receivers: Dwayne Bowe had another good day, catching a pair of touchdown passes. He once again made a spectacular catch and he didn’t add any drops. Two scenarios could be playing out. The dropped TD pass in Indianapolis that hurt his team may have made enough of an impact on Bowe that it could be the turning point in his development as a receiver. Or . . . this could just be two games that he has played up to his talent level. We won’t know until he strings together a bunch more good games.

Passing 

Total 

Less than 7 

7-10 yards 

10-plus 

Avg/Att 

Cassel vs. Jax

13-18-193 

2* 

10.7 

Season 

91-153-1,044 

26** 

11 

34 

6.8*** 

* Includes a 6-yard pass for touchdown. ** Includes six short-yardage first down or touchdown passes. *** Includes two spikes to stop the clock

Targets vs. Jacksonville

Receiver 

Target 

Catches 

McCluster 

Bowe 

Moeaki 

Copper 

Cox 

Pope 

Tucker 

Targets for Season

Receiver

Target

Catches

Bowe 

37

18 

Moeaki 

29

21 

McCluster 

23

15 

Chambers 

16

Charles 

15

12 

Castille 

7

Jones 

7

Copper 

7

Pope 

4

Cox 

2

Vrabel 

1

Horne 

1

Tucker 

1

Run-Pass Frequency

The Chiefs are a running team. But Charlie Weis has shown he’s not afraid to toss it on first down – even in the monsoon. Against the Chargers, he opened his first two series with first-down passes.

Against Jacksonville, the Chiefs ran in 11 times on first down and passed eight times until the start of the fourth quarter when they held a two-score lead. From that point, they had eight straight runs on first down for a total of 19-8 first-down run-to-pass ratio.

Defense

The Chiefs continued dominance against the run against Jacksonville, limiting the Jags to just 3.7 yards per carry and holding them to 3 or fewer yards on 15 of the Jaguars 23 rushes. For the season that makes 91 runs of 3 or fewer yards out of the 146 attempts against the Chiefs defense. Subtract the nine short-yardage plays that went for first down or touchdown, the Chiefs have been successful 56.2 percent of the time in making successful plays against the run.


Opponent

Runs/Yds

3-less 

4-plus 

Success+

Avg 

San Diego 

29-109

20 

20 

3.7 

@ Cleveland

26-73

15* 

11 

14 

2.8 

San Francisco 

15-43

10* 

2.8 

@ Indianapolis

31-97

19** 

12 

14 

3.1 

@ Houston

22-132

12*** 

10 

10 

6.0 

Jacksonville 

23-84

15 

15 

3.7 

+ Success is defined by the Chiefs defense holding a runner to 3 or fewer yards unless that run resulted in a first down or touchdown.

* Includes 1-yard touchdown for Cleveland and 2-yard run for first down with San Francisco. ** Includes two “successful” runs for first down and three kneel-downs at the end of the game. ***Includes two runs of less than 3 yards for touchdown.

Against First Down

The Jags, trailing most of game and by two scores in the fourth quarter, passed 16 times on first down compared to nine runs on first down. The season total is now at 69 running plays on first down against the Chiefs, and teams have passed on first down 91 times against the Chiefs.

Opponent

Runs

Avg.

Pass*

Avg.

San Diego 

19

4.4 

12 

11.3 

@ Cleveland 

14

3.9 

11 

4.2 

San Francisco 

7

3.3 

15 

4.2 

@ Indianapolis

14**

3.5 

17 

6.0 

@ Houston

6

2.2 

20 

11.0 

Jacksonville 

9

3.7 

16 

7.5 

* Includes sacks and QB scrambles as pass plays. ** One kneel-down at end of game.

Sack Breakdown

The Chiefs only sack of the game came from Tamba Hali in a third-and-9 situation. That makes for eight of their 11 sacks coming in obvious passing situations.

First down

Second down 

Third down 

Total

Passing situation*

4

3 

4 

11 

8 

*Passing situation defined as second- or third-and-long (more than 6), two-minute drill or second half when down by more than two scores.


5 Responses to “A Look At The Numbers”

  • October 26, 2010  - Edward says:

    Great points Kent. For all those Cassel bashers bet you all didn’t know Cassel has the highest QB rating over the last 4 weeks than any QB in the league. He doesn’t need to throw for 4000 yards. Give me 3000 yards 24 to 25 touchdowns and 6 to 8 picks I’ll take that kind of a season or better.


  • October 27, 2010  - Keith says:

    Hey you have Tucker as targeted 1 complete 1 in Jax game, but for the season he is targeted 1 complete 0. FYI!


  • October 27, 2010  - Justin says:

    Kent,

    Nice effort and good info. I am a little surprised that the unsuccessful runs tally so high. Clearly, that is better than a loss of yardage but it is a little worrisome.


  • October 27, 2010  - Kent Pulliam says:

    Keith, thanks. Will try to get it changed.
    Kent

    Justin: I think the unsuccessful runs (3 or less) is pretty normal. If you average around 5 yards per carry that means if you have one 8-yard carry there will probably be a 2-yarder in the mix somewhere.

    Thanks


  • October 28, 2010  - Joe says:

    Kent

    You are a great addition to an already great site. Glad to have you on board and look forward to future posts.




Get the Flash Player to see the slideshow.


Categories

Other News

Archives


RSS


Pages

Home